2026 Oscar Predictions & Rankings for Every Category

The 2026 Oscars are approaching, and after watching nearly all nominees, here are my rankings and predictions for every category. My rankings reflect my personal preference among the nominees, while my prediction reflects which film I think the Academy will actually award. Sometimes those align, more often they don’t.

Who Will Win the Oscars in 2026?

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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Best Picture

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderson’s film has dominated key precursor awards and appears to be the Academy’s most likely Best Picture winner. Because both organizations use a preferential voting system, the winner of the Producers Guild of America Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture has predicted the Academy Award for Best Picture winner 70–80% of the time in the modern era.

Sinners gained strong momentum at the end of the season, but it may be a case of “too little, too late.” The last—and only—time the Academy awarded a strict horror film best picture was in 1991 for The Silence of the Lambs. With 16 nominations, it seems more likely that Sinners will be recognized in other categories.

My Pick: Hamnet

Hamnet’s nuanced exploration of grief is visceral and distinctive, both in its micro messages and general framework. Bugonia and Sentimental Value offer similar emotional resonance, but with screenplays that feel less refined and occasionally drag.

Though Marty Supreme maintains momentum throughout, its subject matter isn’t nearly as delicate and doesn’t require the same level of refinement. Hamnet is masterfully made in nearly every design aspect and will stand the test of time as a powerful cinematic study of grief.

My Ranking:

1. Hamnet
2. Marty Supreme
3. Bugonia
4. Sentimental Value
5. Sinners
6. One Battle After Another
7. Train Dreams
8. Frankenstein
9. F1
10. The Secret Agent

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Best Director

Predicted Winner: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Of all the categories, this may be the closest race due to the strength of each narrative. Anderson is widely considered “overdue” for an Oscar, while Coogler could become the first Black director ever awarded the top prize.

Both have won key precursor awards, though Anderson won the single best predictor for Best Director, the Directors Guild of America Award for Outstanding Directing – Feature Film, which matches the Oscar roughly 80-90% of the time. However, I believe this year could be part of the minority. Coogler gained strong momentum toward the end of the season, taking both BAFTA and Critics Choice, signaling strong support among critics and international voters.

The Academy occasionally splits Best Picture and Best Director, rewarding the film with the broadest support in one category and the most distinctive filmmaking achievement in the other. If that pattern holds, Ryan Coogler could emerge as a surprise winner if One Battle After Another takes Best Picture.

That said, Paul Thomas Anderson winning here would be equally, if not more, expected. And, if One Battle After Another were to lose Best Picture, I would expect Paul Thomas Anderson to win Best Director.

My Pick: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

If you’ve made it this far, you’ve probably deduced that I’m quite the Hamnet fan. It truly is an exceptional film, and from watching interviews with the director and cast, it’s clear that having Chloé Zhao at the helm is what made it all possible.

Zhao employs a Jung-inspired creative process, implementing unconventional exercises, such as dance takes and dream work to access the unconscious and coax visceral emotion. The results speak for themselves, as Hamnet features career-defining performances across the board, from Buckley and Pascal to the child actors on set.  

Hamnet is a film driven by raw, instinctive performances that feel almost unearthed rather than performed. It’s a directing feat that Michael David Simms describes best:

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My Ranking:

1. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

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Best Actor

Predicted Winner: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Despite being the early frontrunner, Timothée Chalamet’s momentum came to a near halt following a series of divisive press interviews and underperformance in several key precursor awards. Most notably, Best Actor winners typically come from films that are major Best Picture contenders; given the overall strength of Sinners across the nominations, Michael B. Jordan holds a clear advantage in this regard.

While Marty Supreme is also nominated, it isn’t considered a serious contender, which weakens Chalamet’s position. Considering the late-season surge behind Sinners and the Academy’s tendency to award dual-role performances, Jordan appears to have the edge.

My Pick: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Though I thoroughly enjoyed Sinners, I wasn’t particularly impressed with Michael B. Jordan’s performance. He was adequate, but the distinction between the twins seemed to come mostly from the writing and costuming choices. I would go so far as to say that the stellar performances from the ensemble cast are what propel the movie forward, and Jordan’s characters were among the least compelling.

On the other hand, Chalamet is the singular force holding Marty Supreme together. He convincingly creates a character who is at times despicable, yet somehow still invites you to hope for something better from him by the end. Because of Chalamet’s thoughtful portrayal, you want to see the character grow, correcting his mistakes and becoming a better version of himself.

Though Ethan Hawke was exceptional in Blue Moon, the film itself just isn’t strong enough to make him a serious contender. Also, we’ll never forget the snub of Jesse Plemons 2026.

My Ranking:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

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Best Actress

Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

There isn’t much to debate in the Best Actress race. Jessie Buckley has swept the 2025 awards season and is generally considered a lock for the Oscar. Many critics have described her performance as career-defining, with some suggesting it will be taught in drama schools as a masterclass in acting. Co-star Paul Mescal called it, “one for the textbooks.”

https://www.instagram.com/reels/DU8y3msEmts

My Pick: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Though I concur with the predicted winner, I don’t think the choice is as obvious as it’s made out to be. The top three contenders are exceptional and could easily be winners in another awards seasons. Byrne delivers a deeply layered performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, while Bugonia completely hinges on Stone’s ability to make the central premise believable. Even Reinsve and Hudson are fantastic in their respective films.

My Ranking:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Emma Stone, Bugonia
4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
5. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

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Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Winner: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

With two actors nominated from One Battle After Another, the film clearly has strong acting support within the Academy, but Penn’s role has emerged as the more prominent contender. His chances benefit from a series of highly memorable scenes that tend to dominate the film whenever he appears, which is exactly the kind of supporting role the Academy often rewards.

My Pick: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

While this crop of supporting actors does an exceptional job depicting interesting and memorable characters, Jacob Elordi is the only one who delivers a layered performance and truly disappears into the role. The others are great, but ultimately one note. Elordi’s portrayal of Frankenstein is nuanced and sympathetic, allowing the audience to see the humanity behind the monster—even through layers of make-up.

My Ranking:

1. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

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Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Winner: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Considering Sinners’ 16 nominations and Wunmi Mosaku’s role as the film’s emotional anchor, she appears most likely to come out on top. Teyana Taylor is a close contender, and I could see the category going that way as well. One Battle After Another and Sinners will be battling it out for many of the major races.

Amy Madigan’s performance in Weapons is highly regarded, winning both the SAG Award and the Critics Choice Award, but the film’s overall weakness will ultimately sink her chances.

My Pick: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Like the supporting actor category, every supporting actress nomination is worthy of praise, but I was floored by Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value. She captures the vulnerability of a promising yet flawed actress with remarkable precision—she’s thoughtful, instinctive, and tender.  Her performance is the epitome of what I believe the category should reward.

My Ranking:

1. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons
3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
4. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
5. Inga Igsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

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Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Sinners, written by Ryan Coogler

With Sinners performing strongly across multiple categories, Original Screenplay feels like one of its most natural wins. The Academy often rewards writer-directors in this category, and Coogler’s script provides the film’s ambitious narrative foundation.

My Pick: Sentimental Value, written by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

Sentimental Value shows the most emotional depth and care in its dialogue. It’s also a film that relies heavily on the writing itself, rather than the larger spectacle and theatrics that back Sinners.

My Ranking:

1. Sentimental Value by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
2. Sinners by Ryan Coogler
3. Marty Supreme by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
4. Blue Moon by Robert Kaplow
5. It Was Just An Accident by Jafar Panahi

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Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Hamnet, written by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell

With Hamnet competing strongly across several major categories, Adapted Screenplay feels like one of its most natural wins. The Academy often rewards literary adaptations that translate complex emotional material to the screen, and Zhao and O’Farrell’s script provides the film with its delicate structure and thematic depth.

My Pick: Bugonia, written by Will Tracy

Though Hamnet is perhaps my favorite film of the year, its strength lies in how all of its elements come together. The screenplay has tremendous emotional depth, but Bugonia’s crisp, rapid-fire dialogue between its eccentric characters gives the script a lively rhythm that ultimately pushes it ahead for me.

My Ranking:

1. Bugonia, Will Tracy
2. Hamnet, Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
3. Frankenstein, Guillermo del Toro
4. Train Dreams, Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
5. One Battle after Another, Paul Thomas Anderson

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Best Animated Feature

Note: I’m skipping this category since I did not have the chance to watch all of the nominees.

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Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Winner: The Perfect Neighbor

The Perfect Neighbor has emerged as the frontrunner throughout awards season, buoyed by strong precursor recognition and the continued relevance of its subject matter. Documentary voters often gravitate toward films that combine urgent real-world stakes with compelling storytelling, which gives it a clear advantage in this category.

While The Alabama Solution is the most powerful and formally accomplished documentary in the lineup, films in this category often win based on broader accessibility and campaign momentum. Its uncompromising lens may make it a critical favorite rather than the Academy’s ultimate choice, giving The Perfect Neighbor’s more accessible approach a slight edge.

My Pick: The Alabama Solution

The Alabama Solution is a critical documentary with precise presentation, exceptional journalism, and clear narrative storytelling. Come See Me in the Good Light achieves similar filmmaking strengths but engages with less urgent subject matter.

My Ranking:

1. The Alabama Solution
2. Come See Me in the Good Light
3. The Perfect Neighbor
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Note: I did not have the opportunity to watch Cutting Through Rocks.

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Best International Feature Film

Predicted Winner: Sentimental Value

This category appears to be a two-horse race. It Was Just an Accident boasts strong international critical support and the prestige of an established filmmaker in Jafar Panahi. However, International Feature winners increasingly come from films that receive recognition across multiple Oscar categories.

With nominations in acting and screenplay races, Sentimental Value has the broadest support among the nominees. It Was Just an Accident has strong critical backing, but  it lacks the same level of Academy presence.

My Pick: Sentimental Value

Sentimental Value and Sirāt were two of my favorite films this year, but Sentimental Value resonated with me just a touch more.

My Ranking:

1. Sentimental Value
2. Sirāt
3. The Secret Agent
4. It Was Just An Accident
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

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Best Casting

Predicted Winner: Francine Maisler, Sinners

Casting awards often recognize films with strong ensembles and standout supporting performances. With multiple acting nominations and a deep cast that elevates the film’s central drama, Sinners appears to have the advantage in this category.

My Pick: Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another

Every role is immaculately cast and Chase Infiniti is a breakout discovery.

My Ranking:

1. Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another
2. Nina Gold, Hamnet
3. Francine Maisler, Sinners
4. Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme
5. Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent

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Best Cinematography

Predicted Winner: Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another

My Pick: Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme

I love me some creative framing; Khondji’s elegant and inventive compositions in Marty Supreme stood out the most to me. However, Michael Bauman is heavily favored for One Battle After Another based on precursor awards. Sinners remains a strong contender, with Train Dreams as a potential dark horse.

My Ranking:

1. Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme
2. Adolpho Veloso, Train Dreams
3. Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein
4. Michael Bauman, One Battle after Another
5. Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

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Best Film Editing

Predicted Winner: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another

Film Editing frequently goes to the film with the strongest overall narrative momentum, and winners often overlap with Best Picture contenders. With One Battle After Another leading the race for Best Picture, its editing appears well positioned to take the award.

My Pick: Stephen Mirrione, F1

My Ranking:

1. Stephen Mirrione, F1
2. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
3. Andy Jurgensen, One Battle after Another
4. Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value
5. Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

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Best Production Design

Predicted Winner: Frankenstein, Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

My Pick: Frankenstein, Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

My Ranking:

1. Frankenstein, Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
2. Hamnet, Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
3. Sinners, Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
4. One Battle after Another, Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
5. Marty Supreme, Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis

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Best Costume Design

Predicted Winner: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

My Pick: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

My Ranking:

1. Kate Hawley, Frankenstein
2. Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet
3. Deborah L. Scott, Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Ruth E. Carter, Sinners
5. Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme

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Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Note: I’m skipping this category since I did not have the chance to watch all of the nominees.

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Best Original Score

Note: I’m skipping this category since I did not have the chance to listen to each score in isolation.

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Best Original Song

Predicted Winner: Golden from KPop Demon Hunters

My Pick: I Lied To You from Sinners

My Ranking:

1. I Lied To You from Sinners
2. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
3. Train Dreams from Train Dreams
4. Sweet Dreams Of Joy from Viva Verdi!
5. Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless

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Best Sound

Predicted Winner: F1

My Pick: Sirāt

My Ranking:

1. Sirāt
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. One Battle after Another
5. Frankenstein

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Best Visual Effects

Predicted Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

My Pick: Avatar: Fire and Ash

My Ranking:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. The Lost Bus
3. Jurassic World Rebirth
4. F1
5. Sinners

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Best Animated Short

Predicted Winner: Butterfly

My Pick: Butterfly

Butterfly is a poignant memorial grounded in historical context and brought to life through gorgeous painterly oil-paint animation. It displays the most impressive craftsmanship, though The Girl Who Cried Pearls is similarly impressive and has decent reach with voters. The Retirement Plan has deeply resonated with audiences but is much more simplistic in visual style.

My Ranking:

1. Butterfly
2. Forevergreen
3. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
4. Retirement Plan
5. The Three Sisters

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Best Live Action Short

Predicted Winner: Two People Exchanging Saliva

My Pick: Two People Exchanging Saliva

My Ranking:

1. Two People Exchanging Saliva
2. Jane Austen’s Period Drama
3. The Singers
4. Butcher’s Stain
5. A Friend of Dorothy

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Best Documentary Short

Predicted Winner: All the Empty Rooms

My Pick: All the Empty Rooms

My Ranking:

1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
3. The Devil Is Busy
4. Perfectly a Strangeness
5. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”

➡️ Read my full rankings, predictions, and analysis for the 2026 Oscar Documentary Short nominees.

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Final Thoughts on the 2026 Oscars

Despite falling short of $9 billion at the box office, 2025 was an exceptional year for movies if you evaluate the quality of the films themselves. The year featured a lineup teeming with impactful filmmaking—emotional roller coasters fielding deep resonance, despicable protagonists and magnetic villains, and creative cinematography and design choices all around. Many of the films released this year are ones I’ll enthusiastically suggest to others or even revisit myself.   

Yet, many of my favorites will fail to receive recognition this awards season. Mainstream standouts like One Battle After Another and Sinners dominate the conversation while worthy contenders fail to receive nominations at all. Jesse Plemons, Jennifer Lawrence, and No Other Choice are just a few snubs that come to mind. Perhaps the pool was simply too deep.

Regarding the 2026 Oscars, the winners feel mostly predictable, though a few potential upsets could still rattle the cage. Given the breadth of excellent films, I’m hoping (but not optimistic) that the awards will be spread among deserving nominees rather than settling on the most popular choices.

Here’s to another year of excellent cinema!

Oscar-Nominated Summaries: